Kanada - Leading Index Ekonomi

The Canadian economy advanced 0.1% mom in September of 2019, the same as in August and in line with market expectations. The wholesale trade sector rose 0.9%, largely offsetting the 1.2% contraction in August. There were increases in six of the nine subsectors, led by a 3.1% rise in the wholesaling of machinery, equipment and supplies. The construction sector was up 0.6% in September with increases in all of its subsectors. The mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector edged up 0.2% in September. Oil and gas extraction increased 0.4%, following two months of decline. In contrast, rail transportation went down 7.2%, amid trade-related declines in the production of potash and iron ore; and manufacturing contracted 0.2% in September, the third decrease in four months.

The economic activity in Canada rose 0.1 percent in August 2019, after stalling in the previous month and below market expectations of a 0.2 percent growth. Goods-producing industries were up 0.2% after two months of declines, led by manufacturing (0.5%), amid increased sales and a rise in durable manufacturing, with 6 of 10 subsectors expanding. Gains were also registered in agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting (0.4%); construction (0.3%) and mining & quarrying (0.1%). Meanwhile, services-producing industries edged up 0.1%, driven by the professional, scientific and technical services sector (0.7%) and finance & insurance (0.5%) which contrasted with a decline in wholesale trade (-1.3%).

The Canadian economy stalled in July 2019, after expanding 0.2 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of a 0.1 percent growth. Goods-producing industries shrank 0.7 percent, as output declined in mining, quarrying, and oil & gas extraction (-3.5%, the largest fall since May 2016); construction (-0.7%), of which residential construction (-1%), engineering & others (-0.7%) and repair construction (-1.1%); manufacturing (-0.1%), namely durable (-0.9%); and agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting (-0.2%). Meanwhile, services-producing industries rose for the 5th consecutive month (0.3%), driven by the wholesale (1.1%), led by personal & household goods (5.5%) and motor vehicles & parts (3.9%); real estate, and rental & leasing (0.4%), in particular real estate agents & brokers (4.2%); retail trade (0.1%), mostly health & personal care (2.7%) and motor vehicle & parts dealers (1.2%); and finance & insurance (0.3%).

The Canadian economy expanded 0.2 percent from a month earlier in June 2019, the same pace as in the previous month and above market consensus of 0.1 percent. Goods-producing industries declined 0.2 percent, mostly due to manufacturing (-1.4%), as durable (-0.7%), namely wood products (-4.8%) and fabricated metal (-2.4 %); and non-durable manufacturing dropped (-2.1 percent), of which food (-2.6%, the largest decline since October 2012), plastic and rubber (-5 percent) and chemical manufacturing (-2.3 percent). On the other hand, services-producing industries rose 0.3 percent, boosted by wholesale trade (0.9 percent), led by miscellaneous wholesaling (+3.8%) and machinery, equipment and supplies (+1.0%); retail trade (0.6%), driven by building material and garden equipment and supplies (+4.6%), clothing and clothing accessories stores (+3.9%) and general merchandise stores (+2.4%).

The Canadian economy advanced 0.2% from a month earlier in May of 2019, easing from a 0.3% expansion in the previous month but above market expectations of a 0.1% growth. It is the third consecutive month of gains, as goods-producing industries rose 0.6%, up for a third month, and services-producing industries edged up 0.1%. Manufacturing expanded 1.2% in May, as durable manufacturing grew 2.3%, of which transportation equipment (+5.7%) led the increase, as motor vehicle production returned to normal levels, following temporary shutdowns and atypical production schedules at some plants in April. Also, the construction sector was up 0.9%, particularly residential construction (+2.2%) and the transportation and warehousing sector was up 1.0%, led by a 4.9% increase in rail transportation. On the other hand, wholesale trade fell 1.4% and mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector contracted 0.8%.

The Canadian economy advanced 0.3% from a month earlier in April of 2019, easing from a 0.5% expansion in the previous month but above market expectations of a 0.1% growth. Goods-producing industries rose 0.4% (vs 0.8% in March) while services producing industries increased 0.2% (vs 0.4%). Mining, quarrying and oil & gas extraction was up 4.5% in April (vs 3%), primarily due to a 5.5% rise in oil & gas extraction; the wholesale trade sector increased for the fourth consecutive month by 1.4% (vs 1.1%) and the construction sector increased 0.2% (vs 0.4%), due to both residential (0.2%) and non-residential construction (0.7%). By contrast, the manufacturing sector shrank 0.8% (vs 0.9%), the largest monthly contraction since August 2017, as a decline in durable manufacturing more than offset an uptick in non-durable manufacturing. Also, retail trade (-0.1% vs 0.4%) and transportation & warehousing (-0.1% vs 1.6%) dropped in April.